A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Alert

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."